An analysis made this week of Russian attitudes towards a possible ceased the fire with Ukraine suggests that the Russian public is ready to end the war, but skeptical of any concession that Moscow may have to do.
In combination with a new survey in Ukraine, the analysis of a company based in Massachusetts, Filterlabs, shows how difficult the sale of the terms of a peace agreement is, both for the Russian and Ukrainian public.
While the two countries have a war, there is little appetite for the main concessions for government war goals, such as the requests of Russia of territorial concessions or the desire of Ukraine to integrate with the West.
“As with all things related to Ukraine/Russia, the picture is complicated, although from Borderlands to big cities, there is one through the line: the Russians feel that it is time to end the war, but under the conditions of Russia”, discovered society in its analyzes.
In a phone call with President Trump on Wednesday, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, agreed to pause the attacks on the energy objectives as long as Russia has done the same. The Trump administration sees the agreement limited as a step for a ceased the wider fire.
Filterlabs, who scrapes social media and internet posts to measure public feeling in Russia and in other parts of the world, has analyzed the shifts in the Russian attitudes against the war from the vast scale of President Vladimir V. in February 2022.
The new analysis, written on Wednesday, has concentrated on internet posts in the last few days from the two largest cities in Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg and the Russian regions that confuse Ukraine.
“Our analysis shows that skepticism on a potential ceased agreement was widespread, as well as the general tiredness of the war,” said society.
Filterlabs’ work showed the public that reactively reacts to the news that the United States had resumed sharing of intelligence and sales of weapons in Ukraine. While a month ago the feeling in Russia towards Mr. Trump was increasing, recent commentators were more skeptical.
“You can’t trust the Americans, including Trump,” wrote a Russian in a telegram post that was revised by Filterlabs. “Under the speech of peace, they have already resumed weapons. Their words are a complete deception. We are winning and we don’t need three models.”
Jonathan Teubner, CEO of Filterlabs, said that skepticism towards the United States was behind most of the attitudes of the Russian public.
“Many in Russia are reading the proposal as another way to America and the West of taking advantage of Russia,” he said. “This underlying skepticism probably gives Putin the ability to refuse a ceased the fire that many people want.”
Based on Filterlabs analysis, a minority of Russians wants to continue fighting until Mr. Zelensky is overturned.
“Why do we need a respite if we are crushing the Ukrainian armed forces on all fronts?” A person wrote on Telegram. “So that during this period the enemy can lick his wounds and hit with renewed vigor? Only Kiev’s capitulation will satisfy us!”
The survey in Ukraine has also shown skepticism in the transferred territory or on the fact of great concessions in Moscow. Russia asked for Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the Ukrainian provinces that Moscow attached after its invasion: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kerson and Zaporizhzia. The annexation was widely reported at the time as illegitimate by the West.
A survey conducted at the end of February and at the beginning of March by the Razumkov Center, a research institute in Kyiv, Ukrainian capital, discovered that 78 % of respondents opposed the retreat of the forces from the disputed regions.
An even larger majority has opposed the Russian illegal annexation. Only a small minority, 8 %, favored the withdrawal from the regions, found the survey.
The survey also showed that a strong majority was contrary to the lifting of western sanctions on Moscow. The opinions on the fact that Ukraine should become a neutral state, a key demand for the Russians, were more divided, with 56 % that opposed neutrality and 22 % in support.