Without billions of dollars in American manufacturing weapons, it could only be a matter of time before Ukraine forces falter against Russia.
How long, however, depends on the rapidity with which Europe and Ukraine can compensate for artillery, missiles, air defense systems and other weapons that the officials of the Trump administration have said on Mondays have been waiting.
The United States had committed themselves to providing up to $ 11 billion weapons and equipment in Ukraine this year. Some of these came from the Pentagon’s stocks, while some were ordered through new defense contracts, according to a new analysis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. On Tuesday, a former high -U.S. defense official said that the actual figure was probably closer to $ 9 billion.
Despite the European commitments of incrullable support for Ukraine, who intensified only since the Trump administration has started to retire, it would be almost impossible to quickly affect the gap of weapons. The European defense industries have increased, but only in adaptations. And the individual countries must maintain their weapons.
“Europe cannot replace American aid,” said the former deputy of the Ukrainian military general staff last month, Lieutenant General Ihor Romenko.
Ukraine herself churned out drones and building artillery systems at national level and planned to spend 26 percent of its budget in defense this year. But some high Ukrainian officials say that the military will be in serious difficulties if American support is not restarted.
“Ukraine certainly has a security margin of about six months even without systematic assistance by the United States, but it will be much more difficult, obviously,” said a legislator, Fedir Venislavskiki, he told the RBC-Ukraine news agency Tuesday.
Some analysts claim to think that this too could be excessively optimistic.
“Of course, within the four month period, their forces would have started to read, because they would not have enough ammunition and equipment to replace what they have lost,” said one of the authors of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Study, Mark F. Cancel, former strategist of weapons of the White House.
Why can’t Europe fill the gap?
Of the 136 billion dollars in military aid that the allies provided to Ukraine from the beginning of the Russian invasion on a large scale in February 2022 until the end of last year, almost half came from the United States, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research organization.
The American share has been reduced over time while the defense industries in Ukraine and Europe have accelerated production. Only about 20 percent of military hardware currently provided to Ukraine comes from the United States, according to the recent Royal United Services Institute estimates, an analytical group affiliated to the British military.
“But 20 percent is the most lethal and important,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy general director of the institute. Ukraine will not collapse abruptly without American weapons, it has provided Chalmers. “The effect,” he said, “will be cumulative”.
The United States, the largest economy in the world, simply have more resources at its disposal. Its Air Force, for example, has 17 large electronic surveillance aircraft, while Great Britain has only three, according to Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The United States contribute more than half of all NATO combat planes and land attack planes.
Citing the “short -term urgency of acting”, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, Tuesday has announced an 841 billion dollar plan to increase defense budgets throughout Europe and encourage the joint supply between states to speed up the production of weapons. But the previous efforts have been up to par, with the EU countries towed by domestic expenditure priorities and defense contractors who are not able to produce large quantities of expensive weapons without initial capital.
Mrs. von der leyen seemed to recognize him.
“The real question in front of us is if Europe is ready to act decisively how the situation imposes and if Europe is ready and able to act with speed and with the necessary ambition,” he said.
The production of artillery in Europe is now almost able to keep up with the requests of war, said Camille Grand, who was assistant general secretary of NATO for defense investments when Russia invaded. This is an extraordinary round for an industry that had been atrophy after the end of the Cold War in 1991.
But more advanced weapons producers such as the aerial defenses that Ukraine says that they are crucial for its survival are still struggling to quickly produce those systems in large numbers. It may be necessary years to hire and train further workers, expand the factory space and obtain rare lands and other raw materials in a competitive market that has been slowed down by a limited supply chain.
And sector managers claim to not be able to invest in such improvements without the guarantee of contracts that generally work for at least a decade and that some governments have not been willing to provide.
“We are not on a real movie for the war economy while we speak, certainly compared to Russia,” said Grand, now a weapon expert at the European Council for Foreign Relations. He said it would take more political will in Europe to roll defense contracts: “Money is not enough to resolve everything”.
What is Ukraine doing to arm yourself?
The Ukrainian Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, insisted on social media this week that “obviously, our soldiers, the government, have the skills, the tools to maintain the situation in the front line”. But it would not reveal what remains in the Ukrainian escort, it will probably prevent you from exposing any vulnerabilities to Russia.
Shmyhal said that Ukraine would be able to produce enough artillery for itself by the end of the year and that it was Build its armored vehicles and non -slip weapons. Last year, Ukraine built more than one million visits firsthand drones and intends to increase production in 2025.
According to reports, Ukraine is also trying to produce sophisticated aerial defenses such as the American -made patriot system, which can intercept ballistic missiles. Each Patriot system – consisting of interceptor missiles, launchers, radars and a command center – can cost $ 1 billion and requires up to two years for construction.
Of the seven patriot air defense systems that the United States and Germany gave to Ukraine, at least two were destroyed, according to the Oryx weapons monitoring site. The short aerial defenses were sent by Great Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Romania, among others.
But Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and the Russian bombing has been incessant. “You will always have to choose and choose: you will not be able to defend yourself from everything,” said Barrie, a military aerospace expert.
‘Condemned?’
In his study, entitled “Ukraine is now condemned?” Cancen provided that without US military aid, Kiev would be forced to accept a unfavorable agreement of ceased with Russia. This could mean giving in a fifth of its territory and giving up its aspirations to join NATO.
And some allies could now decide to reduce their help, thinking that without American support, “this is a lost cause,” said Cancerian in an interview.
It is not clear if the Trump administration will also cut the sharing of intelligence with Ukraine. Fears have also recently been raised that Ukraine will lose access to the Starlink satellite internet system that facilitates military communication and is owned by Elon Musk, the nearby ally of Trump.
But it is clear that “the arrest of security assistance will make it more difficult for Ukrainian to reach a right and lasting end of this war”, said David Shimer, director of the National Security Council for Eastern Europe and Ukraine during the Biden administration.
“It will reduce the financial leverage of Ukraine, weaken the Ukrainian military and therefore will undermine Ukraine negotiation position with Russia,” said Shimer. “The United States should focus on strengthening, not on the weakening, on the hand of Ukraine in front of a negotiation”.
Michael Schroirtz Contributed relationships.