When the Kremlin released his summary of President Vladimir V. Putin’s Call on Tuesday with President Trump, one thing was unmistakable: the Russian leader had not retired from his maximalist goals in Ukraine and has so far granted little.
Much of what Mr. Putin accepted during the call-through to whom a limited stop stopped the 30-day stop on the attacks of energy infrastructures from both sides, an exchange of prisoners and talks about security in the Black Sea-Sea was made to go as a concession to Trump in the respective summary of the conversation issued by Moscow and Washington.
But everyone was objectives that the Kremlin pursued and saw as advantageous in the past. Russia and Ukraine have previously reached a tacit mutual agreement to refrain from the strikes of energy infrastructures, which have caused pain both in Moscow and Kyiv. Russia has led to the exchanges of prisoners with Ukraine for a long time, seeing the repatriation of its soldiers as a key interest of the Kremlin. And uninterrupted trade in the Black Sea is fundamental for the Russian economy.
The requests of Mr. Putin in Ukraine have appeared unchanged. During the call, according to the Kremlin, Putin reiterated the requirements for a ceased the complete fire of 30 days which knows how to be not started for Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, he said that the Ukrainians had sabotaged and violated agreements in the past, And he accused Ukraine of having committed “barbaric terrorist crimes” in the Kursk Russia region.
Putin, said the Kremlin, also identified its “key condition” to resolve the conflict in a wider way: a complete termination of external military support and intelligence for Kyiv. This result, analysts say, would make Ukraine, a much smaller country in Russia, permanently hostage for the overwhelming military superiority of Moscow and blocked forever in the orbit of the Kremlin, without any supporter of counterbalance.
The Kremlin could hope that in the course of negotiations, an already impatient Washington moves away from Ukraine forever, freeing Mr. Putin to continue his war, also renovated the relationships with the United States separately. Russia could also count on the possibility that Kyiv, facing an increasingly terrible picture on the battlefield and the loss of its greatest supporter, eventually accepts a erosion of its sovereignty for the benefit of the Kremlin.
“The best result for Putin is the one in which he achieves his goals in Ukraine and can normalize relations with the United States,” said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former American intelligence official who is now an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, a Think Tank in Washington. “So Putin wants to make fun of Trump to give him enough to see if he can do it.”
Mrs. Kendall-Taylor added that Mr. Putin will feel that he has little to lose, believing that Mr. Trump, who did not secretly make the dark vision of Ukraine and the European allies of Washington, “will not be willing to truly increase the pressure on Russia or recommend to Europe”.
“There is a lot of incentive for the Russians to participate, play and look for every opportunity to use this construct at the maximum advantage,” said Mrs. Kendall-Taylor.
Putin also has significant advantages on the battlefield. His forces are conquering the territory. The largest and most important supporter of Ukraine, the United States, is openly starting to abandon Kiev, as well as Europe in a wider way. Europe, suddenly creating its danger without the support of us, has been captured on the feet and now is climbing to understand how to guarantee its defense, not to mention that of Ukraine.
“In Russian diplomatic operation, negotiations are often only tools to win time and deprive the opponent of his balance,” said Andras Racz, a senior researcher of the German Council for foreign relationships.
Racz said that Washington’s desire declared that he achieved a rapid resolution to the conflict gives a certain advantage to Moscow, that “is not in a hurry”.
After the rupture of the Soviet Union, Washington’s power in Europe grew significantly, with many of the countries that once responded to Moscow who joins NATO and the end of the West. Putin has never accepted this result, making him eager to keep larger discussions on European security with the Trump administration. His apparent hope is that Washington will not only accept an agreement that places Ukraine in Russian orbit, but will also admit a wider reduction in American influence on the continent.
Russia, while giving little to Ukraine, started making a temptation of Washington with the fruits of a rapprochement. Russian officials have advertised their vast metals of rare land metals, stating that they would be happy to exploit them with American companies and keeping in mind possible agreements for American investors in the Russian energy sector.
Mr. Putin and Trump spent part of the discussion on Tuesday talking about what the Kremlin called “a wide range of areas where our countries could establish interaction”, including ideas on cooperation in the energy sector. According to the Kremlin, the Russian leader ensured Trump’s agreement to organize hockey tournaments with Russian and American professional players who appeared against each other.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that the Kremlin hoped to convince the United States to restore the links without predating renewed relationships at the end of the fighting in Ukraine. That’s why, he added, the Kremlin is loading the discussion with all the potential benefits for the United States by a renewed relationship with Russia.
“The impression is that they have a very, very, very good reading of Trump,” said Gabuev Del Kremlin. “They know where the weak points are, they know how to massage his ego.