When avian flu for the first time hit the milk cattle a year ago, it seemed possible that it could hit some isolated herds and disappear with the same speed with which it had appeared. Instead, the virus has infected over 900 herds and dozens of people, killing one and the epidemic shows no signs of reduction.
A pandemic is not inevitable even now, they said more than a dozen experts in the interviews. But a series of developments in recent weeks indicates that the possibility is no longer remote.
Guidelines without teeth, inadequate tests and long delays in the release of data-and fake steps during the Covid-19 pandemic-the opportunities to contain the epidemic, the experts said.
In an emblematic example of the disorder, some milk herds in the Aidoo who were infected in the spring showed slight symptoms for the second time in the late autumn, learned the New York Times. In mid -January, the Agriculture Department said that new infections have not been identified in the herd’s herds since October. But state officials publicly discussed more myths in November.
The fact that a second meeting of infections would produce milder symptoms in cattle is not surprising, experts said and could be welcome for farmers. But the reinfections suggest that the virus, called H5n1, could circulate indefinitely in farms, creating opportunities to evolve in a more dangerous-one form “high risk”, said Louise Moncla, an evolutionary biologist of the University of Pennsylvania.
“You could easily end up with H5 in circulation endimally in the herds of milk without symptoms, obscuring quick or easy detection,” said Dr. Moncla.
It is impossible to predict whether the virus will evolve the ability to spread among people, let alone when, she and the others said. But the concern is that if the influence of the bird finds the right combination of genetic mutations, the epidemic could quickly intensify.
“I’m not yet at peace-my-bad-and-and-to-to-hills worried, but there have been more signals in the last four or six weeks that this virus has the ability” to escape a pandemic, said Richard Webby , an influence expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.
Federal officials have also subtly modified their tone in discussing the epidemic, now underlining the speed with which the situation could change.
For the general public, H5n1 is “a low risk, compared to the other risks they face today,” said dr. Nirav Shah, main deputy director of the Centers for the control and prevention of diseases. But “100 percent, it could change,” he said. “This is a dangerous virus.”
Health experts point out that there are precautions that Americans can take: do not touch sick or dead birds or other animals; Make yourself test if you have flutelike symptoms; Do not consume milk or raw meat or feed on your pets.
If a wider outbreak is to explode, the escort of the federal vaccine holds some doses, although that vaccine may first need to be updated to combine the advanced form of the virus. In both cases, officials should climb to produce enough for the population.
The CDC recommends treatment with antiviral tamiflu, but studies have shown that the drug makes very little to relieve the disease.
Underlining the concerns between many experts is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who would have guided the Department of Federal Health if confirmed, was a vocal critic of Covidi vaccines and said that the aviatory influence vaccines “seem to be dangerous”.
Although the second Trump administration embraces the development of the vaccine, as the first did when Covid lowered, it is not clear how many Americans rolling up the sleeves for the blows. The influence generally affects older children and adults and the pandemic influence has sometimes hit the most difficult young adults. But the distrust generated during Covid-19 can avoid the precautions of the Americans, at least initially.
An evolution threat
Unlike the Coronavirus, which caused chaos with its sudden arrival, the flu viruses generally begin in a specific animal species or in some geographical regions.
When H5n1 emerged in Eastern Asia almost three decades ago, mostly sick. In the years that followed, infected at least 940 people, almost all up close, supported contact with infected birds; About half of those people died.
But from January 2022, when the virus was detected in wild aquatic birds in the United States, it has hit over 136 million commercial birds, courtyard and wild, helping to raise egg prices. He also affected dozens of mammal species, including wild and unstressed cats, procues, bears and marine lions.
For at least a year, H5n1 infected milk cattle, which were not known to be susceptible to this type of influence. In some cows, it has had long -lasting effects, reducing milk production and increasing the chances of spontaneous abortions.
And in 2024, the virus infected 67 Americans, compared to only one in previous years, in 2022. The sources of these infections are not all known; A person may have transmitted the virus to someone in the family.
Many of these developments are classic steps towards a pandemic, said dr. James Lawler, director of the Global Center for Health Security of the University of Nebraska. But, he observed, “where those had to really trigger accelerated and amplified amplified amplified, state and local level, we have just shaken our shoulders when each milestone has passed”.
The infections in the milk herds, which emerged for the first time in Texas, seemed to decrease last summer. But at the end of August, California announced its first case. State figures soon increased abruptly, pushing Governor Gavin News to declare an emergency for public health in December.
“It was a kind of flag for me, like, ‘Ok, this did not go away,” said Dr. Manisha Juthani, commissioner of the Department of Public Health of Connecticut. “In the last two months, it seemed that time has increased,” he said.
Several other recent events have increased the alarm level among experts. At the beginning of December, scientists reported that in a laboratory environment, a single mutation helped the virus to infect human cells more efficiently.
And at the end of last year two people, a 13 -year -old Canadian girl and a resident of Louisiana more than 65 years old, got sick; Previously, most people infected with H5n1 had no serious symptoms. The Louisiana patient, who had health conditions and took care of the sick and dying birds, died in early January.
The girl was placed on vital support due to the failure of the organs, but in the end she recovered. Scientists do not yet know how it has been infected; His only risk factor was obesity.
Both patients had contracted a new version of the virus which is distinct from that in milk cattle and is now widespread in birds. In both individuals, the virus has gained mutations during the infection that could allow them to infect people better.
“Now we are clearly obtaining new viruses that are formed in the water basin of wild birds,” said dr. Moncla. “It has become demanding to keep a hand on all the various threats.”
Some experts see him particularly worrying that the virus seems to be in food sources such as raw milk and food for raw pets. Domestic cats died in numerous states, pushing the call of at least one brand of pet food and new federal guidelines on the quality of pet food.
“The Pet-Food thing for me is, I think, quite alarming,” said Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the National Institute of Allergy and infectious diseases.
Pastorization kills the virus alive, as well as cooking meat at high temperatures. However, neither procedures is perfect, dr. Marrazzo observed: “It is not possible that you can monitor production and sterilization in a way that will ensure that 100 percent of the vaults on the supply of food will be safe”.
An imperfect response
In the year since the beginning of the epidemic, federal officials have announced other measures to prevent or prepare for a pandemic. But everyone is deeply imperfect, the experts said.
The Department of Agriculture of the United States was slow to start testing H5N1 vaccines for cows, leaving the companies interested in limbo. Dr. Marrazzo said that the department released genetic information from virus samples but had not said where or when they had been collected – details that would help scientists trace the evolution of the virus.
It is also not clear how many herds are reinfected or have fought in infections for months. In Idaho, some herds infected in the spring seemed to recover but showed again mild symptoms in November.
“From the data we have to date, we do not see evidence of new infections or reinfections in the herds previously affected, but rather a lack of authorization of the original infection,” said a spokesperson for the USDA in a response via and -mail. But external experts said that the trajectory of symptoms suggested a second cycle of disease.
The Usda program to test the bulk milk began in December – almost a year after the start of the epidemic – and still does not include the Idaho. The involvement of private companies can help the program move faster.
Ginkgo BioWorks, a company that worked with federal agencies during the Covidic pandemic, already evaluates about half of the supply of commercial milk of the nation for bacteria, antibiotics and other substances.
The addition of H5N1 to the list would be simple, so “why shouldn’t we simply add tests in this infrastructure that we already have?” Matt McKnight said, manager of the company’s biosyphicity division.
At the beginning of this month, the Biden administration announced $ 306 million in new funding, about a third of it for surveillance, tests and awareness of agricultural workers.
But agricultural workers in some places such as Texas Panhandle are not yet aware of what the avian influence is, how it spreads and because it should be imported to them, said Bethany Alcauuter, director of research and health programs Publish at the National Center for Farmworker Health.
As a result, he said, many workers do not yet use protective tools, even in the milk salons in which the virus is thought to spread.
The human tests were volunteer and the infections were lost. Few agricultural workers have opted to be tested, for fear of immigration officials or employers.
“If you don’t look for it, you won’t find it, right?” Said dr. Deborah Birx, who was coordinator of the coronavirus response of the White House under President Trump. “These are not blocks or limit the activity. It is a matter of protecting the single American by enhancing them with information. “