Putting that argument aside, there are certainly some diplomatic opportunities Trump can seize, although history and ominous recent warnings suggest he could mollify his adversaries and allies with the threat of military action if he doesn’t get his way . (See: Iran, Greenland, Panama.)
Here’s a scorecard to keep handy in the first few months.
In the fog of war, a potential deal with Ukraine
There is very little evidence that Putin is eager to reach a deal that would get him out of a war that has already cost Russia nearly 200,000 dead and more than half a million wounded. But the assumption is that he is looking for a way out. Since his televised debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has promised just that: a deal “in 24 hours,” or even completed before he was sworn in.
Now, it’s no surprise that it seems a little more complicated. His special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, an 80-year-old retired general who served on Trump’s first National Security Council, recently told Fox “let’s set it at 100 days” to make sure “a solution is solid, sustainable”. , and for this war to end so we can stop the carnage.” Trump has said he will meet Putin “soon,” remarkable timing, especially since Biden hasn’t spoken to the Russian leader in nearly three years.
What could an agreement look like? First, most Biden and Trump officials acknowledge, at least privately, that Russia would most likely keep its forces in the roughly 20% of Ukraine it now occupies — as part of an armistice similar to the one that has stopped, but did not end, the Korean War in 1953. The most difficult part of any agreement is the security agreement. Who would guarantee that Putin does not take advantage of the suspension of fighting to rearm, recruit and train new forces, learn from the mistakes of the last three years and invade again?
Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, says Biden’s team has spent the last year “putting the architecture in place” to ensure that security. But Volodymyr Zelenskyj, president of Ukraine, suspects that it is all just talk. Recalling that no one paid much attention to the 1994 security agreement that Ukraine signed with the United States, Britain and Russia, among others, he says that only NATO membership will prevent Putin from attacking again.